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Forum Thread

Lottery chances

Forum-Index Help Answered Lottery chances
Mrinja
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Trainerlevel: 43

Forum Posts: 552
Posted: Sun, 22/10/2017 18:52 (6 Years ago)
Ok, so I heard its really low to win the lottery. But I really don't get how did you calculate the chances? My question is, doing my math it would be about 462 tickets or 23100 game chips. Though I don't really know because I don't know if the lottery doesn't care about the right order, such as "oh no the tepig is in the 2 slot it has to be in the 5th slot in order to count." Because if it does have to be in order, I would get it. Anyway if there is no order, can someone show me the right equation to use?

11 (the amount of groups to be in the safe side) * 42 (slots) = 462 (tickets)

Edit: I feel like I'm doing something wrong, gotta check again.

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CatLady
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Forum Posts: 8,298
Posted: Sun, 22/10/2017 20:14 (6 Years ago)
A few years ago, I calculated the odd for this question. I copy-pasted the results for easy reading :)

Chance of hitting 2 correct pokémon - 1 in 861
Chance of hitting 3 correct pokémon - 1 in 11480
Chance of hitting 4 correct pokémon - 1 in 111930
Chance of hitting 5 correct pokémon - 1 in 850668
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Mrinja
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Trainerlevel: 43

Forum Posts: 552
Posted: Sun, 22/10/2017 20:58 (6 Years ago)
Yes, but I can't figure out how you got those answers. So I'm just asking for a equation. Because I'm really confused.

People often think the PH sprites are bland. Do they shade? Well, yes they do. You'll be surprised how much care is taken for these sprites.




CatLady
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Trainerlevel: 99

Forum Posts: 8,298
Posted: Sun, 22/10/2017 21:14 (6 Years ago)
It's amount of pokémon you can choose from [42] divided by the amount of matches you need (2, 3, 4 or 5) times the factorial of the amount of pokémon minus the amount of matches. [because the order doesn't matter]

So -
2 matches = 42!/(2!*(42-2)!)
3 matches = 42!/(3!*(42-3)!)
4 matches = 42!/(4!*(42-4)!)
5 matches = 42!/(5!*(42-5)!)

Credits for avatar to ~Cookie~

Kitties! Riako has no idea what he unleashed with that update🙀
Collecting Lovely Larvesta and Silly Seel Plushies~
Looking for Ice Gems and Flying Gems here! Help me hunt a Shiny Articuno!
(You can win your own non-shiny Articuno in return)
Breeding events for the cause here!